Last weekend’s King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot should have been one of the best quality races of the flat season. Indeed, it was, but there was to be no British or Irish winner of the race despite the quality on offer.
While runner-up Bluestocking and third-placed Rebel’s Romance lost nothing in defeat, it was the disappointing performance of favourite Auguste Rodin that burnt a few fingers. History however had already told us he was a bad favourite at those odds.
Was the Track and Trip Ever Right?
For many, when a horse has won over a trip it’s automatic to say they “get it”. That’s not always the case.
You can win over a certain trip against inferior opposition even if it isn’t ideal, which is what Auguste Rodin did when he won the Irish Derby last year. The other thing to remember is course configuration.
August Rodin was supreme in the mile-and-a-half Breeders’ Cup Turf last November. It has always been the case however that ten-furlong horses can and do win in such conditions, as the tight seven-furlong tracks in the States allows for those with pace over a certain distance to kick and see out the trip while the dour stayers leave it too late.
Epsom too, where Auguste Rodin won the 2023 Derby, can been seen out by mile-and-a-quarter horses. Plenty of good Derby winners are at their best subsequently over ten furlongs. Epsom requires skill to get through the undulations and the camber, as well as being able to kick at just the right rime.
Auguste Rodin went over a proper twelve furlongs against top opposition just twice before last weekend; in last year’s King George and at the Dubai World Cup Carnival in March. On both occasions he was a strong favourite. On both occasions he was soundly beaten. Punters should have been all over that.
Ballydoyle of course is partly to blame. They set the pace, by choice, with a bona fide pacemaker and the classy Luxembourg taking the field along. It seems they went very fast, meaning this was a real staying contest and that never looked likely to suit their boy.
The Hype Did Not Help the Price – Again
The Coolmore and Ballydoyle team, as brilliant as they are and we must make that point, are getting a little too good at publicly hyping their top (male) horses beyond belief. It is definitely to the detriment of the average punter.
You could even make the argument that, with a lot of the initial Coolmore money coming from the bookmaking industry, and without being overly harsh, the punters have never been at the forefront of their thinking. It’s another thing you should keep in mind.
Every year, another colt trained by Aidan O’Brien is ‘the best they’ve had’. Auguste Rodin was that horse before City Of Troy.
He is a Derby winner and a six-time Group 1 scorer. He is a very good horse. As well as clearly being better over a mile and a quarter though and that not being acknowledged by his owner and trainer, his hype is hugely unnecessary.
AUGUSTE RODIN WINS THE DERBY! pic.twitter.com/zoqZoH54tX
— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) June 3, 2023
That hype of course contributes to his price. Though he ultimately went off at 7/4 in the King George, he was 5/4 and shorter for most of the build-up and only drifted in the minutes before the race. Given the circumstances, there was never any value in him for the punter.
His price was never right and history tells us so. Many times in the past, Aidan O’Brien runners capable of running 120 have been spoken about as though they are genuine 130-rated, once in a decade champions. City Of Troy, only last season, was described as “their Frankel”, a true one-off rated 140 and he certainly isn’t that.
This hype which is used, circulated and perpetuated by a combo of the bookies and the media, ultimately affects punters when they fall for the rhetoric.
Why Does the Hype Exist?
Talking up Coolmore colts is all about breeding. They still clearly believe that essentially pinning ‘superstar’ labels on such types will affect their stud value. There’s nothing illegal about such comments, but punter beware.
The only really disappointing thing about this whole incident this time around were the subsequent comments made by Aidan O’Brien about the ground at Ascot.
He said that he walked the track and didn’t agree with the going description. Rather than the official ‘good to firm’, O’Brien called it a mixture of good and even good to soft. That doesn’t seem correct.
The King George was run in a fast time. That said, it was a classy field and the early pace was hot. Rebel’s Romance however wants fast ground and there were no complaints from Charlie Appleby.
The overall times on the Saturday also backed up the official going description, while the view is shared by Timeform who also called it ‘good to firm’ based on the clock.
The ground didn’t get Auguste Rodin beaten, the trip and perhaps the tactics did but what we do know is that his price, especially ante-post, was never right.
Read the form book, use history to predict the future and do not listen to hype.