With the excitement of the Cheltenham Festival now behind us, jumps fans are looking forward to Aintree and Punchestown. As the weather changes, so does the focus with the next major betting race being the Lincoln Handicap on the Flat at Doncaster on March 29.
The Lincoln marks the beginning of the Flat turf season in Britain. Early entries have been sitting for a while with 89 runners currently in contention, though the trainers of many at the bottom end of the handicap will know they are really aiming at the consolation Spring Mile.
Only 22 will get into the race, and things have changed. There’s no Charlie Appleby or John Gosden horses at the top, the “Group horse in a handicap” types, but that doesn’t change what it takes to win the race.
Four-year-olds do so well as they are still improving. The younger the better in this event, generally speaking. With that, we’re looking at some of the top contenders.
The Main Contenders
Qirat
At the top of the market is Ralph Beckett’s Juddmonte four-year-old Qirat.
He’s rated 99 now and that would seem to underestimate him. He reached a mark of 97 as far back as last August, with logic dictating that he will have improved a hell of a lot from then until now.
Qirat wins the @WillHillRacing Harroways Handicap in superb style under @HectorCrouch for trainer @RalphBeckett ! pic.twitter.com/whK7PNCN8J
— Goodwood Racecourse (@Goodwood_Races) May 25, 2024
His Goodwood win back in May marked him out as a horse with serious potential. He went clear that day of a favourite rated 90, one who is now rated 109. He has won on soft ground, but a sounder surface may be better for him to show off a classy turn of foot.
Harper’s Ferry
At the right age and stage is Ed Walker’s Harper’s Ferry. He’s a Lope De Vega and typically loves soft ground, which some will be expecting for the Lincoln.
Harper’s Ferry bounces back at @DoncasterRaces after sticking to his task well for @TomMarquand and @edwalkerracing! pic.twitter.com/XZr3sbkZTz
— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) October 25, 2024
He was given 107 for winning a course and distance handicap last autumn and there’s more improvement to come. It’s a bit on the nose to say he’ll do it all again here though having gone up 7lbs for winning in conditions that can exaggerate performance. He’s the 7/1 second-favourite right now.
Thunder Run
Karl Burke’s Thunder Run is 9/1 in the betting having reached his mark of 100 back last August. He was beaten favourite next time on soft ground and more will be expected now.
He did his winning at York. That’s a hard place to win, but also horses have to pull out their best there and it leaves less room for improvement.
Thunder Run beats his elders in the £150,000 Clipper Handicap!
The three-year-old lands a huge prize for owners and race sponsors Clipper Logistics, with David Egan riding for the @karl_burke team @yorkracecourse pic.twitter.com/2qUJZGmiJu
— Racing TV (@RacingTV) August 22, 2024
Midnight Gun
The 10/1 shot Midnight Gun is one for Hamad Al Jehani and Wathnan Racing and he’s interesting as he was runner-up over course and distance to Harper’s Ferry. He’s since been gelded and he can go on any ground, so some will fancy him to turn things around on the favourite.
Native Warrior
Native Warrior is yet another four-year-old, another for Wathnan and another for trainer Karl Burke. He was gelded after disappointing in a course and distance handicap over St Leger weekend, but will no doubt get back on track.
He reached a mark of 93 last June and has since gone close at Goodwood, but his profile suggests he doesn’t improve in lumps.
Paradias brilliantly defies top weight in the @Coral We’re Here For It Handicap for @Rossaryan15 and Alan King! pic.twitter.com/zOVsCMq1Li
— Goodwood Racecourse (@Goodwood_Races) August 3, 2024
Others of Note
Tribal Chief (David Manuisier) improved throughout last season and has had only ten runs, while Naepoint of Ed Bethell’s yard is also of interest. He won on good to firm in the summer and then soft in the autumn before being gelded and put away. There’s more to come from him.
Naepoint lands the Woodsmith Construction Group Straight-Mile Series Final for @PMulrennan and @ebethellracing. The trainer said: “Paul gets a good tune out of him and the horse looks progressive.”
Big thanks to Gary Wood, of Woodsmith Construction, for his support this year. pic.twitter.com/PuSaBynNVL— Redcar Racecourse (@Redcarracing) October 5, 2024
Early Lincoln Bet
Given the form of the race QIRAT won way back last May at Goodwood, and how he won it, many expected him to be a Group horse by the end of last year.
Clearly, his top-class connections still think he will be and 99 is no mark at all for him. He reached a rating of 97 by last August and even natural progression in the right conditions would see him perform to around 110 by now, something that’s very possible in the Lincoln.