When I saw that Godolphin’s outstanding 2000 Guineas winner Notable Speech was set to take on Charyn and co. in the Prix du Moulin at Longchamp I was a little perplexed.
Racing’s big two, Godolphin and Coolmore, are both admirable but it has to be said that there is often a more scattergun approach from the latter. The boys in blue on the other hand, are usually a little more deliberate.
Was the decision to run this horse in France a rare mistake from them?
Form and Pedigree Never Screamed “Moulin”
The writing had already been on the wall for Charlie Appleby’s three-year-old star. Despite a brilliant season, he went off at 12/5, some way behind the odds-on Charyn for the Prix du Moulin.
It transpires that Notable Speech ended up running the second-fastest furlong of the race, from the two to the one behind Charyn, quicker than winner Tribalist and yet finished in fifth place.
| Pos. | Horse | Trainer | SP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tribalist | A Fabre | 207/10 |
| 2 | Charyn | R Varian | 7/10 |
| 3 | Henry Longfellow | A P O’Brien | 26/5 |
| 4 | Caramelito | F Rohaut | 24/1 |
| 5 | Notable Speech | C Appleby | 12/5 |
| 6 | Kelina | C Laffon-Parias | 37/1 |
| 7 | Ramadan | C Head | 21/1 |
He was never able to challenge, something acknowledged by Appleby after the race, but the reasons I have to say were always obvious.
After making his debut only in January, Notable Speech ran to a mark of around 90 at Kempton. He followed that up with a run of around 100 before, according to the official handicappers, running to 109 on what is a quick enough Polytrack surface.
He then ran to 122 in the 2000 Guineas on good ground at Newmarket before apparently running to the same mark on good to firm in the Sussex at Goodwood.
In William Buick’s winning interviews, he has often talked about this horse’s great turn of foot, unlike other horses he’s ridden. There is some extreme talent there, so why slow him down?
For those who don’t know, the River Seine essentially runs underneath Longchamp and that’s why it is almost always soft there. It’s consistently damp, so if you don’t want slow ground, you simply don’t go there.
Soft ground just doesn’t allow for the sort of acceleration Notable Speech has. A marathon runner can go at an even pace and then wind things up gradually, but running a horse like this on soft ground is akin to asking Usain Bolt to accelerate away in deep, wet sand.
As well as what his form showed us, Notable Speech is a Dubawi colt out of a mare whose own best form was on good to firm ground. Given his future target, there was really no need for the trip to France.
Breeders’ Cup Comes Next
It seems that Notable Speech is now definitely heading for the Breeders’ Cup Mile in California on November 2. That’s a great move for him, but also the obvious one.
If we can think of one good reason to go to France last Sunday it was probably simply to see if he did handle soft ground, leaving him the option of the QEII on Champions Day. This may have been in Godolphin’s thoughts as they have other options for California.
As it turns out, the Breeders’ Cup it is. The Godolphin camp themselves have said that he will now get the ground he wants.
He goes to Del Mar in a hot division, the Mile, and will be in a tight field tearing around the bends. There are no guarantees of a win, but punters should be treating him like a proper, top of the line Group 1 horse and shouldn’t be fooled by what happened in Paris.