In a tournament as competitive as the Euros, it’s fair to suggest there are no easy routes to the final. But some routes are undoubtedly easier than others. For sides drawn in a particularly tough group, such as Group B and Group D, even making it to the Round of 16 will be no easy task. And who sides face in each of the knockout stages will depend both on where they finish in their group (and also a large slice of luck as to where other sides finish).
In this article, we’ll attempt to unpick the various likely routes the fancied sides will encounter as they attempt to make it to the final. We’ll start with the Group Stage and progress through the rounds, before concluding with our pick of the side with the easiest route to the final in Berlin on 14th July.
Group Stage
The 24 teams that have made it to the Euro 2024 tournament have been drawn into six groups of four, as detailed below. Let’s see which sides we think will qualify from each before we move on to the implications for the knockout phase.
Group A
- Germany
- Scotland
- Hungary
- Switzerland
Germany haven’t been firing on all cylinders in recent times (they are ranked 16th in the world at the moment, behind the likes of Mexico and Morocco). But this is a home tournament and we would be surprised if they didn’t raise their game at least enough to get out of the group. Hungary and Switzerland are no pushovers, though, and Scotland can give any side a decent game on their day. But we predict the home side will finish top followed by Hungary and then Switzerland.
Group B
- Spain
- Croatia
- Italy
- Albania
This is certainly a tasty-looking group from the perspective of the neutrals. Spain have won the Euros three times and Italy twice, and Croatia are never an easy nut to crack. One of the toughest groups, this is very tough to call but we give Spain the nod to finish top ahead of Italy and then Croatia.
Group C
- Slovenia
- Denmark
- Serbia
- England
England are – rightly or wrongly – currently the favourites to win the whole tournament, and if they play to their potential they should breeze through the group and finish top. Second place is up for grabs though but we think Denmark will nick it ahead of Serbia.
Group D
- Poland
- Netherlands
- Austria
- France
Another very tough-looking group, France should finish at the top of the tree, but again it could be very close for who snatches second spot. Our money is on Netherlands with Austria doing enough to finish third.
Group E
- Belgium
- Slovakia
- Romania
- Ukraine
Belgium have been given something of a plum draw with none of their opponents looking particularly dangerous. We think Ukraine will bag the runners-up spot with a scrap for third that should see Slovakia edge it.
Group F
- Turkey
- Georgia
- Portugal
- Czech Republic
Portugal are the odds-on favourites to finish at the top of the final group and we can’t argue with that. Turkey should get second place but we fancy Georgia to pull a surprise and nick third.
Which sides have the easiest group?
Before a ball is kicked, we would suggest that Belgium and Portugal have been handed the easiest draws, with England and Germany not far behind. The sides in Group B and Group D will certainly have to earn their progression to the knockout stage.
Knockout Stage
The permutations get a little complex for knockout stages. Group winners are clearly going to get a better initial route, but – as with group draws – some will face less dangerous opponents than others in the Round of 16. This is because some group winners will face runners-up from other groups and some will face teams that only managed to finish third in their group. Here’s how things will pan out, based on our predictions.
Round of 16
- Winner Group B v 3rd Group A/D/E/F – So we’re saying this will see Spain face a third-place side and will almost certainly prevail.
- Winner Group A v Runner-up Group C – This would be Germany against probably Denmark, and that could go either way. But with home advantage, will give it to Germany.
- Winner Group F v 3rd Group A/B/C – Portugal to play (and beat) a third-placed side.
- Runner-up Group D v Runner-up Group E – This could well see Netherlands take on Ukraine and we’d fancy the Dutch to edge it.
- Winner Group E v 3rd Group A/B/C/D – Belgium to get the better of a third-placed side.
- Winner Group D v Runner-up Group F – France to face Turkey, a game they should win without too much drama.
- Winner Group C v 3rd Group D/E/F – England to overcome a third-place side.
- Runner-up Group A v Runner-up Group B – We have this match as Hungary versus Italy, with the Italians prevailing.
Any of the sides facing third-placed opposition should have the easiest Round of 16 games, though a lot will depend on whether certain ‘big’ sides underperform at the group stage, only to find their gear later on. Given Group F is quite weak, France should have a relatively easy match, while Germany should be pleased too with the third-placed side from Group C, should they top their group.
Quarter-finals
Based on our predictions, this would be the line-up for the quarters.
- Spain v Germany – This is where the home side’s journey ends as Spain progress.
- Portugal v Netherlands – A tough one to call, but we’re edging towards Portugal who often turn up when it matters.
- Belgium v France – A cracking match for the neutrals, we fancy France to be victorious.
- England v Italy – A re-run of the Euro 2020 final, this time we think England will get the job done.
There are no ‘easy’ games at this stage or beyond, but of the four games, you could argue that Spain have the least difficult, despite going up against the home nation.
Semi-finals
- Spain v Portugal – Spain are not the powerhouses of world football they once and we fancy Portugal to edge this one against their Iberian neighbours.
- France v England – An annoying as it is, we think France will once again get the better of England in a major tournament.
The match between Spain and Portugal would be close and tough and we would suggest that France would have fewer problems against an England side whose defence isn’t quite good enough at the highest level.
So Who Has the Easiest Route to the Final?
Based on our predictions, it will be a France versus Portugal final. We suspect France would probably win that match, though we couldn’t be certain. But looking at the routes to the final, we would suggest that Portugal’s would have been easier. They’re in a very winnable group alongside Czech Republic, Turkey and Georgia (compared to France’s very tough group). Portgular would then face one of the third-placed sides from Group A, B or C, which could be Hungary (or even Scotland) or Serbia. There could be a spanner in the works if they end up facing Croatia at this stage, but we think they’d beat them anyway. A match against Netherlands in the quarters is not a scary prospect these days and though Spain are never easy to beat, they are easier than either France or England would be. So will Ronaldo crown a glittering career with another Euros triumph? He’s got a decent chance!