Britain’s latest Champions Series race takes place at Newmarket this Saturday as the six-furlong July Cup is run.
There is one betting angle that shows the favourite in a very strong light and it seems, without bad luck in running, he remains a very solid proposition for punters.
Concentrate On Younger Horses and the Commonwealth Cup
Since the excellent Slade Power took this race as a five-year-old in 2014, the Group 1 July Cup has belonged to the younger sprinters.
The nine runnings since then have all gone to three and four-year-olds.
Four 4-year-olds have won it, one of those being a former Commonwealth Cup runner-up. Two of them were last-time-out six-furlong Group race winners and only one, Alcohol Free was a surprise.
Of the five 3-year-old champs, two were Commonwealth Cup winners at Royal Ascot when last seen. One more was a Commonwealth Cup runner-up as an 11/4 shot and another was fourth in the Commonwealth Cup as the even-money favourite. The obvious class acts in that race then have really come to the fore here.
The last three-year-old took a different route, but was again an obvious class angle having been runner-up in the Irish 2000 Guineas before stepping back in trip.
Whittling the July Cup Field Down
Based on that betting angle, we can afford to knock out of the running Art Power, Khaadem, Mitbaahy, Regional and Vadream as long as there are indeed some classy three and four-year-olds, which there are.
The two remaining four-year-olds, Mill Stream and Swingalong, have strong form but our past winners of the same age were winning races and were on the way up, so they’re out too.
So where does that leave us?
Vandeek was the top juvenile sprinter of last year, though he’s had two setbacks this year. River Tiber is the type Aidan O’Brien can bring here successfully and form-wise there are few complaints.
River Tiber was third to Vandeek last year and again to Rosallion this season. He is stepping down in trip now and that could bring about improvement, but despite being solid he keeps being beaten at this level.
Jasour was third in the Commonwealth Cup behind Inisherin and he’s improving, but he was beaten comprehensively by that horse who is the genuine standout now.
Ininsherin was expected to be the class act in the Commonwealth Cup he stood up to that very well, pulling away to win nicely. Trainer Kevin Ryan reports him to be getting quicker at home.
Vandeek could come back, but Inisherin has proved himself to the comfortably the best three-year-old sprinter around just now and such types do very well in this race. Keep it simple, back Inisherin and hope that the others are backed against him to create a nice price.